PHOTO: Flooding at Pesega during Cyclone Gits in February this year
Source: Meteorology Division of MNRE
APIA, SAMOA – FRIDAY 26 OCTOBER 2018: 2-3 cyclones are predicted to cross the 400km radius of Apia, Samoa in the upcoming cyclone season starting in November 2018.
The Samoa Tropical Cyclone Outlook released today by the Meteorology Division, said at least 1 tropical cyclone will reach Category 3 (wind speed of at least 178km/h or 111 mph) or greater (Cat.4 – Cat.5).
For the 2018-2019 Season, the Samoa Meteorology Division is predicting an elevated risk for Samoa.
The TC Outlook is based on statistical analyses of historical tropical cyclones data that occurred dating back to the 1970’s in similar ENSO-Neutral conditions, the same methodology developed by regional centers, with national Tropical Cyclone Outlooks utilizing national datasets.
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) in the region. Most Global Climate models are favouring El Nino (70% likelihood) to develop toward the end of 2018. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for September shows SSTs were warmer than average in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment – Meteorology Division will continue to monitor the development of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and will advise the general public if there are significant changes to the outlook presented.
Tropical Cyclones are associated with high winds, storm surges, water spouts and extreme rainfall. All communities are urged to remain vigilant, be alert and foremost advance preparedness when a warning is officially announced of an impending tropical cyclone.