APIA, SAMOA – 02 NOVEMBER 2020: At least one tropical cyclone is predicted to pass within Samoa’s 400km radius during the Tropical Cyclone season now starting and that cyclone to reach Category 3 or greater.
This is according to the Samoa National Statement on Tropical Cyclone & Climate Seasonal Outlook 2020/2021 released by the Ministry of the Environment in the weekend.
Samoa’s Tropical Cyclone season extends from November to April with the peak activity normally experienced from January to March. The Outlook says this upcoming cyclone season is expected to emulate past cyclone seasons that are similar in background conditions to the present 2020/2021.
The Outlook uses six identical (analogue) cyclone seasons based on statistical analysis of these analogue seasons. The analogue seasons include cyclones seasons 1970/71; 1984/85; 1995/96; 2017/08; 2016/17; 2017/18.
Tropical Cyclones have occasionally occurred off season as in outside of the normal November to April period. The analogue seasons also have out of season Tropical Cyclones and such are also possible this season, according to the Outlook.
The La Nina phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation is well established in the Pacific since October with anticipation to continue at least early 2021 after a peak in December 2020.
The Outlook also predicts above average rainfall for Samoa in the upcoming cyclone season.
Meanwhile, heavy rain and Flood advisory remains for Samoa southern districts as a convergence zone remains Southeast of Samoa.
Flooding in the weekend resulted in roads closed in Siumu East, Nuusustia, Mulivai, Tafitoala and Malaemalu in Upolu.